IMF Consultations Signal Critical Juncture for Zimbabwe’s Economic Future – Phoenix Rising

By Dr Masimba Mavaza

Zimbabwe stands on the cusp of a spectacular economic boom, to post a robust 6% growth in 2025. This promising prediction, an improvement from the predicted growth in 2024 at 2%, is for a country revitalized by improved farming fortune, a soaring mining sector, and concerted efforts to stabilize its nascent currency, the Zimbabwe Gold (ZWG). Most notably, the nation is also taking concrete strides towards its complex debt restructuring process, which is a necessary component towards sustainable development success and reentry into the international financial community.

These pivotal insights were shared yesterday by the National Secretary for Economic Affairs, Lt Gen (Rtd) Dr. E.A. Rugeje, at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Article IV Consultations and Staff Monitored Programme (SMP) discussions at ZANU PF Headquarters. The IMF mission, led by Deputy Director Mr. Vitaliy Kramarenko, is in Harare engaging key stakeholders, including ZANU-PF Politburo members and economic ministries, to assess Zimbabwe’s recent economic performance, future outlook, and policy frameworks.

“Zimbabwe’s economic situation is unequivocally improving,” declared Dr. Rugeje, crediting the dramatic effect of beneficial rains during the 2024/25 agricultural year. The long-sought turnaround comes after a challenging 2024, in which the drought linked with El Niño reduced farming production by some 15%, added to by electricity shortages and falling mineral prices. But the country has clearly weathered these shocks and is well placed to experience a wide-based turnaround.”

The Pillars of Prosperity: Agriculture, Mining, and Policy Stability

The 6% 2025 growth estimate is largely based on a spectacular agrarian renaissance, with the agriculture sector growing by nearly 13%. This is powered by foreseen bumper crops in maize and tobacco that supercharge the prime contribution of agriculture to the national economy.

Concurrently, Zimbabwe’s mining industry continues its brilliant performance. Supported by the increasing global prices of gold, which experts have predicted to increase by as much as 30% in 2025, gold exports have already recorded an increase of 8.64% in the first half of the year to US240.1 million. The industry is yet the nation’s biggest export commodity, generating US2.4 billion as export revenue in 2024 alone, with 65% of the entire production coming from artisanal and small-scale miners. Fresh investments are also driving growth in the production of iron and steel and lithium production. As a value addition drive, there is a government plan to phase out export of lithium concentrate by 2027, following an earlier ban on the export of raw lithium ore.

Driving this growth is rising stability of the Zimbabwe Gold (ZWG) currency. The ZWG, which was launched on April 8, 2024, has been successful in addressing earlier volatilities of currencies. Dr. Rugeje mentioned Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe’s (RBZ) bold moves such as a 43% September 2024 devaluation to synchronize official and parallel market exchange rates, and imposition of a willing-buyer willing-seller (WBWS) exchange rate framework. These measures, along with strong foreign currency receipts worth US13 billion in 2024, have promoted relative stability, with the formal exchange rate standing at US1: ZWG 29.95.

“The IMF has shown its faith in the ZWG, as part of our strategy to make it the sole national currency by 2030,” Dr. Rugeje assured, citing international endorsement of Zimbabwe’s monetary policy. Enhanced acceptability of ZWG in domestic transactions, supported by the increase from 26% in April 2024 to 43% up to May 30, 2025, further attests to its increased acceptability.”

Future Planning: NDS-2 and Debt Management

Besides short-term recuperation, Zimbabwe is also looking towards future planning with ongoing development of the National Development Strategy 2 (NDS-2) for the 2026-2030 period. This all-encompassing masterplan, drawing inspiration from the success of NDS-1, presents ten national thematic priority proposals, from macro-economic stability and inclusive growth to infrastructure development and climate resilience – all directed towards the realization of President Dr. E.D. Mnangagwa’s Vision 2030. The emphasis on climate resilience is especially relevant following the recent drought, underlining the nation’s resolve in developing its agricultural industry shock-resilient.

But the specter of an unpayable foreign debt continues to be a big problem. The government is moving fast to negotiate debt rescheduling, with ex-Mozambican President Joaquim Chissano and ex-African Development Bank (AfDB) President Dr. Akinwumi Adesina driving top-level talks.
Finance, Economic Development and Investment Promotion Minister Hon. Professor Mthuli Ncube laid out the intention to finalize a key bridge facility of US$2.6 billion by early 2026. It will be used to clear foreign lenders’ arrears such as World Bank, Paris Club, EIB, and AfDB, to enable Zimbabwe to re-enter international capital markets. Diplomatic bilateral loan negotiations with top partners such as the United Kingdom, Germany, and Brazil are underway.

“Tremendous progress has been registered by global stakeholders in our debt settlement and arrears clearance exercise,” a recent statement of the AfDB reaffirmed, in the same voice as of continuing structured dialogues. The commitment to an IMF Staff Monitored Programme (SMP) by 2025 also serves to highlight Zimbabwe’s commitment to credible reforms and greater policy credibility.

In a historic step, the ZANU PF Government has also begun paying compensation to erstwhile-white commercial farmers. The initial US3 million was paid under the US3.5 billion under the 2020 Compensation Agreement. The historic initiative corrects historic imbalances and gives momentum to reconciliation and confidence-building.

As the IMF mission wraps up its consultations in Harare, Zimbabwe is not only recovering; it is actually building an equitable and resilient economy. Through its properly designed policy packages, currency stabilization, and debt elimination plans, the nation is laying sound foundations for sustainable development and fulfillment of its Vision 2030 leaving no one and nowhere behind.

Profile: Lt Gen (Rtd) Dr. E.A. Rugeje – Economic Architect from the Battlefield

Lt Gen (Rtd) Dr. E.A. Rugeje, ZANU PF’s National Secretary for Economic Affairs, boasts an impressive track record of battle-tested military leadership, strategic acumen, and scholarship to his-central position within the Zimbabwean economy.

Military Career:
Dr. Rugeje’s journey started when he joined the Zimbabwe African National Liberation Army (ZANLA), the armed wing of ZANU, when Zimbabwe was waging its liberation struggle. His nom de guerre was “Sunbat.” He quickened through the ranks, demonstrating more leadership and strategic skills. Post-independence, he remained in the Zimbabwe National Army. His combat abilities even extended beyond borders since he commanded effective counter-insurgency campaigns in the Democratic Republic of the Congo in the mid and late 1990s.

Promotions and Appointments
His distinguished military career had him promoted to the rank of Major General, fourth most experienced in the Zimbabwe Defence Forces in 2000. He was also honored at retirement in 2017 by President Emmerson Mnangagwa for his exceptional service by promoting him to the rank of Lieutenant General.

Education and Qualifications:
Away from the war zone, Dr. Rugeje is academically qualified as a Master of Defence & Strategic Studies and a Master of Laws from Lancaster University. Further proof of his interest in higher learning, he is also a Master of Business Administration (MBA) qualification holder with Harvard University, which further endorses his multi-talented insight in both military strategy and economic management.

Current Role:
Now, Lt Gen (Rtd) Dr. E.A. Rugeje uses his extensive years of experience and maturity as National Secretary for Economic Affairs. There, he is a central figure in the formulation and pushing of the nation’s economic policy, hand in hand with central ministries of government and negotiations with local and foreign counterparts, such as the current IMF negotiations. His leadership represents the combination of discipline, strategic mind, and intellectual maturity now being applied to Zimbabwe’s economic growth.